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Untangling the Republican Delegate Mess
March 24, 2012
It is possible that Mitt Romney might not get the requisite number of delegates before the Republican National Convention is held in August, but that's looking more and more unlikely as the primary season grinds on. Because it could happen, though, here's a review of the "delegate math," as well as a look at how it might be skewed by the tangled web of rules spun by the Republican Party and the flouting of those rules by a couple of key states.
We've had 28 primaries as of March 23rd. Here's the delegate "math," not including the Louisiana results from Saturday, the 24th: Total delegates decided thus far: 1013. Delegate Count: Romney 560, Santorum 246, Gingrich 141, Paul 66 according to Real Clear Politics. Number of delegates left to decide: 1274 (of a total of 2287, although because of RNC rules, some counts differ by four votes). The number of delegates up for grabs should be between 2429 and 2433, but there have been penalties levied against Arizona and Florida for holding their winner-take-all primaries before April 1, so the actual number of delegates is down to 2287, with 1144 needed to win.
Romney to this point has captured 55% of the delegates (560/1013 = 55%); Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul together have captured 45% (their combined total is 453; 453/1013 = 45%).
If Romney grabs 55% of the remaining 1274, he'll have an additional 700 delegates and his total will be 1260 (560+700), well above the 1144 needed to win. It's not certain whether Romney will continue to win at a 55% pace, but the odds are that he will. The delegate math, calculated in this way, indicates that the nomination is his, especially when this delegate math is combined with what I see as a groundswell of Romney support that is broadening throughout the Republican Party and which I think will soon begin to sway more conservative voters.
Enter the Republican National Committee. In the bizarro world of Republican Party delegate counting as dictated by the RNC, we have to take into account the fact that even though the voters in a number of states might select the nominee of their choice, the delegates that represent them aren't bound to vote as the people who send them to the convention have indicated they want them to.
According to the RNC, the total of so-called "unbound" voters is as follows: Iowa, 28; New Hampshire, 2; Colorado, 36; Minnesota, 40; Missouri, 52; Maine, 24; Wyoming, 29; Washington, 43. That means that there are 254 fewer voters that can be counted as definite, bringing the total of bound votes down to 759. Compounding the confusion, the RNC says that the delegate count "as reported by state parties" so far totals only 680. The RNC's presentation of this important data is among the sloppiest and least dependable I have ever encountered. It makes Jon Corzine's accounting practices look absolutely beyond reproach.
But wait. According to ABC News, the actual
count of bound voters is 708. Of these, Romney has 390, the other three
combined have 318. As fate would have it, Romney's total of 390 constitutes
almost exactly 55% of the total of 708 unbound votes as ABC counts them,
while the three stooges' total of 318 makes up 45% of the total. At least
ABC's bound-delegate count actually adds up.
The kicker in all this is that, as much fun as it would be to watch that perverse, self-inflicted three-ring circus unfold, it's not going to happen this way. Despite the indecipherable tangle of rules and procedures and impediments to a straightforward, clean, no-problems primary election - one which actually allows voters to decide the candidates - that the RNC has managed to put forth, Mitt Romney is the overwhelming favorite to capture the nomination. Pressure on Santorum and Gingrich to withdraw is going to escalate dramatically over the next several weeks, whether or not Santorum wins Louisiana.
People following the primaries closely are going to look for their primary election results, not to the RNC's morass of rules and rulings and numbers that simply don't - can't - add up, but to sources such as Real Clear Politics. If the RNC should suddenly pull a fast one on the eve of the convention and declare that Romney, with more than the 1200-plus votes I'm confident he'll have accumulated by that time, is not the winner, all hell will break loose, and the Republicans would risk becoming the laughingstock of the political world, possibly throwing away their chances of even fielding a viable candidate by the time the November elections roll around.
Finally, though, the RNC and the influential conservative politicians and kingmakers in Washington D.C. are coalescing behind Romney. He'll be the consensus candidate before June 1, obviating the need for the RNC to defend the indefensible.
Now if Romney would only announce Florida Senator Marco Rubio as his Vice Presidential running mate . . .